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02/11/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Canucks have been piling up the points lately and Vancouver will try to keep that trend going tonight, when it visits the Calgary Flames for a Northwest Division clash at the Saddledome.
The Canucks, who lead the division by 14 points over Colorado, have won three straight and have recorded at least a point in eight straight outings (6-0-2). Vancouver has suffered just two regulation losses during the 2012 calendar year, posting a 10-2-3 mark since the beginning of January.
Vancouver will also try to end a four-game road trip with a perfect 4-0 record tonight. The Canucks, who are three points behind Detroit for the top seed in the West and the NHL, have a league-best 19-9-1 record as the guest this season.
The Canucks were glad to have Henrik Sedin in the lineup for their last game and he scored a goal in Vancouver's 5-2 win in Minnesota. Sedin took a puck off his ankle in Tuesday's win over Nashville, but the Swedish forward was able to play in his 553rd consecutive game on Thursday. Only Calgary defenseman Jay Bouwmeester has a longer active iron man streak in the NHL.
"All Swedes are tough, right?" Vancouver defenseman and Sedin's countryman Alex Edler joked after the game. "Hank is a warrior, he's played with pain before and it was big of him."
Daniel Sedin had a goal and an assist in the win over the Wild, while Maxim Lapierre, Manny Malhotra and Ryan Kesler also scored for the Canucks. It was Vancouver's first regulation win since a 4-3 decision over San Jose on Jan. 21.
Cory Schneider had 22 saves to post the win for the Canucks, but Roberto Luongo expects to be back between the pipes tonight.
Henrik Sedin enters tonight on a five-game point streak, while Kesler has scored goals in five consecutive outings and has six tallies and one assist during a seven-game point streak.
The Flames are 2-0-2 so far in February and will try to use a brief two-game homestand to aid their push for the playoffs. Calgary is currently tied with Minnesota for the 11th seed in the West and is just two points out of a playoff spot.
Calgary ended a three-game road trip on Thursday with a 2-1 overtime setback in Phoenix. Shane Doan scored the game-winner in OT for the Coyotes.
Olli Jokinen tallied a goal and Leland Irving made 34 saves in what was the Flames' fourth loss in six games.
"We knew it wasn't going to be an easy game." Flames head coach Brent Sutter said. "It's a point you could of had that you let get away from you, but the positive is that you did get a point."
The Flames, who will also Toronto on Tuesday, are 14-8-2 as the host this season compared to an 11-14-6 mark on the road.
Calgary had lost five straight in the series with the Canucks before posting a 3-1 win in Vancouver the last time the clubs met on Dec. 23. The Canucks have still claimed five straight at the Saddledome.
<< Wild try to halt slide vs. Blue Jackets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Wild will try to snap a three-game losing
streak tonight when the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets come to town for a battle
at Xcel Energy Center.
The Wild have gone 0-2-1 in their last three games after winning
<< Avs, Blues collide in St. Louis
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will try to boost their playoff
chances against a tough opponent, as they visit the St. Louis Blues for
tonight's clash at Scottrade Center.
The Avalanche enter today tied with Dallas for the ninth s
<< Leafs to honor Sundin before hosting Habs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the best rivalries in professional sports will be
rekindled tonight in Toronto, as the Maple Leafs welcome the Montreal
Canadiens for a Northeast Division clash at Air Canada Centre.
Before the old Original Six foes
<< Sabres try to stay hot against visiting Bolts
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Buffalo Sabres will try to post their longest
winning streak of the season tonight, when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning
at First Niagara Center.
Buffalo has notched wins in its last three outings and is one
Flames' Blair Jones out indefinitely >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary Flames center Blair Jones is out
indefinitely after suffering a fractured ankle.
Jones suffered the injury while blocking a shot during Thursday's game against
the Phoenix Coyotes.
In 13 games
Spain eliminates Kazakhstan in Davis Cup >>
Oviedo, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spain has again advanced to the Davis Cup
quarterfinals after the doubles team of Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez
posted a straight-set victory over the Kazakhstan duo of Evgeny Korolev and
Yuriy S
Czechs bounce Italy out of Davis Cup >>
Ostrava, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych
followed up their singles victories from Friday with a doubles triumph
Saturday to send the Czech Republic past Italy and into the Davis Cup
quarter
Celtic claims 13th-straight league win >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic continued its stunning run of form
Saturday, defeating Inverness, 1-0, at Parkhead to extend its winning streak
in Scottish Premier League play to 13 games.
The Bhoys have not dropped points in
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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